In this Analysis Section we provide our Analysis posts by subject.
Economy
Persistent Inflation Threatens the Recovery
Business costs are driving persistent inflation due to multiple factors. Labor shortages are severe in the manufacturing, warehousing, retail, leisure, and hospitality sectors. Lack of workers drives wages up across thousands of businesses forcing management to raise prices to end customers and consumers. Rent prices are surging in the suburbs. Commodity shipments are bottlenecked causing hoarding driving prices up further. We examine all these factors driving embedded inflation into the economy.
Job Churn Creates Massive Economic Uncertainty
The pandemic triggered a shock to both supply and demand in the economy. Management had no choice when lockdowns spread across the country but to lay off workers and ask those still working to work from home.
The Twilight Zone Economy
Our economy has entered the twilight zone. Today, economic leaders base policies on a hoped-for utopia with bubbles called ‘growing markets’ and greed termed ‘good valuations’. The twilight zone economy is a place where fundamentals have disappeared. It is a utopian world of no moral hazard for business, financial or economic mistakes.
Five Forces Driving The 2021 Economy
A look at the path of the pandemic, the economic destruction it caused, and the five forces that will drive the economy in 2021 and beyond.
Tale of Two Economies: One Growing, the Other Declining
We have two economies interlocked but separated by contrasting sets of life experiences. One lives in relative peace, and prosperity. The other is stressed, financially insecure, and virus vulnerable.
Will Consumers Bailout the Economy
Consumers play an important role in driving economic growth. Can they recover and bail out the economy?
A Pandemic Iceberg Hits the ‘Unsinkable’ Economy U.S. Economy – A Map Ahead
The pandemic hits both the supply and demand sectors hard this post explores both a quick recovery and possible long term economic impacts.
Will Monetary of Fiscal Stimulus Turnaround the Next Recession?
A recession is emerging with interest rate curves inverted, the end of the business cycle at hand, world trade falling, and consumers and businesses beginning to pull back on spending. The question is: will monetary or fiscal stimulus turn around a recession?
Will The Economy Replace Ten Million Jobs By 2022?
Popular forecasts call for a return to pre-pandemic levels of employment and economic activity by yearend. Really? We are not so sure. The economy lost over 22M jobs between February 2020 and today. The recovery has gained 12M jobs leaving a deficit of 10.7M jobs to replace.
Housing Debt
The Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst
A perfect economic storm as a $100B housing debt bubble is gathering strength from the health, social and financial forces identified in this post.
Markets
Today’s Meltup Will Be Tomorrow’s Meltdown
When markets move up into bubble levels a crash or major correction is sure to follow. Market cycles follow a pattern of extreme highs resulting in a reversion to lows.
Pandemic – Social / Work Pattern Shifts
Work From Home Threatens Commercial Real Estate Valuations
Working from home is will result in significant headwinds for the commercial office real estate for at least the next several years.
COVID-19 Triggers Transformation Into A New Economy – Part 2
The novel COVID-19 virus has driven the world economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression and is transforming the U.S. in a new economy.
COVID-19 Triggers Transformation Into A New Economy – Part 1
The novel COVID-19 virus has driven the world economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression and is transforming the U.S. in a new economy.
How COVID-19 May Move The Markets
The consider the compounding effect of the Corona Virus to disrupt both demand and supply, the social chaos in China challenging government authority, and a lingering trade war – these factors all make a decline into a recession a real and growing possibility.
Will The Corona Virus Trigger A Recession?
The consider the compounding effect of the Corona Virus to disrupt both demand and supply, the social chaos in China challenging government authority, and a lingering trade war – these factors all make a decline into a recession a real and growing possibility.
Small Business
The Survival of Millions of Small Businesses Is Threatened
The small businesses sector is the jobs engine of the U.S. economy. Over 35% of small businesses report they will be out of business in six months if they do not receive additional funding.
